It’s the end of the year and although there are still plenty of shipments departing China, the bulk volume of exports happened far earlier this year. Tariffs had exporters scrambling to get their goods into the US well before November leaving end of the year volumes falling short of previous years. Let’s take a look at what to expect in the next few weeks.
Tariff Talk
Section 301 exclusions which took effect in 2016 during President Trump’s first term have been extended through November 10, 2026. Those exclusions, which include toys and games, were set to expire in November of this year, but have gained an additional year due to part of the China/USA truce agreement. Reciprocal tariffs on Chinese imported goods to the US remain at a base 20% with additional tariff rates added to those goods included in the Section 301 and 252 tariffs. There are currently several online calculators to determine what your tariff rate will be. GPI’s favorite: https://tariffs.flexport.com/
US Ports
Most US ports are in good shape this month with little to no berth waits or port congestion on both US East and West coasts. Lower than usual ocean import volumes from China are helping to keep both pricing and transit times down. Many general rate increases set to take effect on December 1st have been mitigated and Peak Season Surcharges have been delayed to January making now the perfect time to ship via ocean.
US Rail
Rail yards in the US are busy and are expected to continue this trend throughout the month of December. If your trade route includes the rail, be prepared for a 3 to 5 day wait in the queue before your goods get on the move to their destinations.
US Air
There is no slowdown when it comes to shipping via air as importers try to get in last-minute shipments for the holiday season. Air freight rates are up and capacity is tight. If you’re planning on air shipping your goods this month, expect to pay a high price.
Ports Around the World
European and Mediterranean ports continue to experience heavy port congestion leading to delays in returning containers and vessels. The reasons for congestion vary depending on the area, but it equates to rolling vessel schedules on the Asian side as ships returning to reload in China are arriving later than anticipated.
It’s been a very tumultuous year for manufacturing, freight and importing. Constant changes have riddled each month with uncertainty, but we’ve navigated the continuous changes as best we could. As this year ends, GPI would like to thank you for your unwavering support and for travelling the road, ocean and air with us.
We wish you all the very happiest holidays and hope for a calmer and more stable year to come.
