Tariff Update: Past, Present and Future
Updated: May 4, 2026
The landscape through which tariffs are charged to U.S. importers is still subject to a great degree of uncertainty and complexity, albeit a bit less chaotic than what we all experienced throughout 2025. Currently, it’s all about the refund process for the IEEPA tariffs that have been deemed to have been illegally charged.
But first, a tutorial of terminology:
CBP: U.S. Customs and Border Protection. The Federal agency under the auspices of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS)
ACE: Automated Commercial Environment portal. This is CBP’s system designed to streamline international trade. It connects importers, exporters, and government agencies to manage trade data, ensure regulatory compliance, and process cargo efficiently.
CAPE: Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries. This is the portal that is part of CBP’s ACE portal. The CAPE portal was built in approx. 60 days, and was built for the purpose of processing the IEEPA refunds to importers.
IEEPA: International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The main justification for levying tariffs on imported goods throughout 2025. This justification was struck down by the U.S. Supreme Court in February of this year.
Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974: This is a legal tool that is used to address foreign trade practices that are deemed to unfairly restrict U.S. commerce and violate trade agreements. The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative is authorized to conduct investigations, and if necessary take retaliatory actions- imposing tariffs, fees, or quotas against countries that are in violation.
Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974: This section empowers the U.S. President to impose temporary import restrictions or quotas—including surcharges (i.e. tariffs) up to 15% to address “fundamental international payments problems” or large trade deficits. It is a rarely used emergency provision designed for economic stabilization. It is designed to be temporary in nature. The President’s authorization is only for 150 days, at which Congress must approve any additional terms.
And without further adieu, here’s where things stand…
Past:
- Section 301 Tariffs: Section 301 tariffs were implemented in 2018 during the first Trump Administration and held in place to this day. Still in effect, they range from 7.5% to 25%, and apply to a range of materials and products from numerous countries around the world. These tariffs have been charged in addition to any other tariffs justified under other authorizations.
- IEEPA Tariffs: No longer in effect. The U.S. Supreme Court struck down the tariffs charged on imports under IEEPA on February 20th of this year. In striking down this justification that the Trump Administration used for applying tariffs on imported goods, the effect was that the tariffs were deemed to have been collected illegally. This forces the government to refund the tariffs that were illegally charged. Did I mention that the highest court in the land determined that these tariffs were charged illegally? Good.
Present:
- Section 301 Tariffs: Still in effect, and are charged in addition to the Section 122 tariffs currently in effect. The Section 301 tariffs currently in place apply to numerous categories of products and also raw materials.
- Section 122 Tariffs: This section authorizes the President to apply tariffs of up to 15% for a temporary period of 150 days before Congress must act to reauthorize it. Within two days of the Supreme Court’s decision to strike down the IEEPA tariffs, the Trump Administration pivoted to apply a global 10% tariff on all imports under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. This 150 day period expires on July 24th, and many have questioned Congress’s stomach for approving an extension of this tariff rate with a little over 90 days before the U.S. midterm elections. And yes, the 10% global tariff in place is subject to multiple court challenges.
- Refunds on IEEPA Tariffs: It’s all about the refund process.
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- CAPE Process: The Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries (CAPE) is currently accepting applications for refunds of the IEEPA tariffs. This portal went live on 4/20. In VERY short summary, the process involves:
- Submission of entries through uploading a .csv file
- Validation and acceptance / rejection of entries
- Issuance of a claim #
- Processing, by way of removing the IEEPA tariffs and recalculating the tariffs for each previous entry
- A 45 day period in which the CBP reviews entries and validates refunds
- 60 – 90 days for actual refunds to be issued. Hurry up and wait folks…
- A few statistics on the process:
- This first phase covers approx 63% of eligible entries.
- It is estimated that refunds will total approx $166 billion dollars. In illegally charged tariffs… Let that sink in…
- Applies to approx. 53,000,000 entries
- Includes 50,000+ importers
- After an initial 45 day review process, it is estimated that refunds will take over 60-90 days for issuance.
- While the refund is supposed to include interest to be paid out, there currently is no guidance as to what the interest rate will be or how it is calculated (simple vs compound interest, for example).
- CAPE Process: The Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries (CAPE) is currently accepting applications for refunds of the IEEPA tariffs. This portal went live on 4/20. In VERY short summary, the process involves:
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Future:
- Famous Quote: A very wise little fellow with pointy ears once said “Difficult to see. Always in motion is the future.” Truer words were never spoken as it relates to U.S. tariff policy moving forward.
- Not so Famous Quote: A very un-Yoda-like Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently said: “President Donald Trump’s tariffs may be restored by July to the levels in place before the Supreme Court struck down many of his levies”.
- Another un-Yoda-like (and actually more appropriately Darth Vader-ish) President Trump has been quoted as saying the new tariffs “…are going to get us more money.” How eloquent…
- What Bessent was referring to was the expanded use of the Section 301 tariffs. His reference to July relates to the expiration of the Section 122 tariffs currently in effect (that authorization expires on July 24th). However, the process of implementing Section 301 tariffs requires that formal investigations of specific countries’ trade practices be conducted by the Office of the United States Trade Representative, headed up by (also un-Yoda-like) Jamieson Greer.
- These investigations (when conducted properly and without political influence and/or prejudgment) typically take months to complete. However, there is much skepticism out there around the legitimacy of these investigations, given the speed with which they are being implemented. And given their importance as the new main conduit for funding as the replacement for the IEEPA tariffs that were struck down, it’s expected that these investigations will yield the maximum opportunity for levying new tariffs. Finally, rest assured that once implemented, there will be numerous court challenges.
GPI’s role:
- For those of you out there who entrusted GPI to manufacture your products (really smart move!) and also hired us to manage the freight forwarding and Customs clearance process (ooh, you’re good… another smart move), we have checked off all the boxes thus far to obtain refunds.
- The entries we have submitted for review, recalculation of tariffs, and ultimate issuance of refunds have thus far been accepted without rejection, and we have a claim # assigned to us.
- When (or more realistically, IF and when) we receive the lump sum payout of refunds, we’ll then embark upon the process of identifying and crediting your corresponding refund to your accounts with us.
- We will continue to keep you closely advised on the status of any and all refunds.
So what, you ask, can we glean from all this?
Well, put me down in the “still skeptical” column for the appropriate and timely issuance of tariff refunds. Also, given the upcoming midterm elections in November, I do not expect the Section 122 tariffs currently in place will be reauthorized by Congress. I would think any Republican up for reelection this fall isn’t going to want to be tagged with voting in favor of continuing to increase consumer costs through the imposition of more tariffs.
That said, I do think it’s a foregone conclusion that new tariffs will be announced this summer. The big question, of course, is what percentage they will take and therefore what economic impact they’ll have on the value and volume of imports.
Bottom line? Any ability you have to forecast your inventory needs for Q3 & Q4 this year should drive when you are placing production orders, all in an effort to import your products prior to whatever tariff policy is announced in the coming months.
